CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-03-28T12:09:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-03-28T12:09ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19556/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 white light imagery. It is associated with an M4.0 flare and eruption from AR 12975 (N12W01). The eruption is characterized by an EUV wave and dimming that is best seen in SDO AIA 193 around 2022-03-28T11:21Z. The eruption is also visible in the northwest quadrant from the viewpoint of STEREO A EUVI 195. The shock from what is probably the combined front of this CME and the 2022-03-28T20:23Z CME was observed around 2022-03-31T01:41Z, it was followed by the sheath and the CME flux rope starting around 2022-03-31T012:00Z (a more coherent magnetic field, rotations, and the sudden drop in proton density at the transition between the sheath to the CME flux rope). We might be seeing the second flux rope (possibly for 2022-03-28T20:23Z CME) slightly after 2022-04-01T12:00Z when there is a sudden increase in the magnetic field and a drop in density. (analysis by Tarik Salman, LASSOS)
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-03-31T01:41Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-03-31T05:08Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-03-28 17:19 - Time at C2: 2022-03-28 12:09 - Radial speed: 662.0 km/s - Half angle: 45 deg - Eruption location: N07W12 Inferences: - No flare association was found Predictions for Earth: - In-situ shock speed: 604.60 km/s - Shock arrival time: 2022-03-31 05:08 (i.e. predicted transit time: 64.98 hours)Lead Time: 55.68 hour(s)
Difference: -3.45 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2022-03-28T18:00Z
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